5 thoughts on “On October 19th, both the shore and offshore renminbi exceeded the 6.4 mark against the US dollar, hitting a new high in 4 months. What happened?”
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Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has been calling back. In the first three quarters, the US dollar index rose 4.7%, while the RMB appreciated slightly by 1.2%. At present, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 6.4 to 6.38. The exchange rate is an indicator for measuring relative economic strength, affecting imports and exports, and thus a direct impact on the economies of various countries.
The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is continuously depreciated, which means the appreciation of the renminbi. The appreciation of the renminbi will make the goods exported to the United States more expensive, thereby reducing demand. If it is depreciation, the export will be cheaper, thereby increasing demand and expanding exports.
The people think that $ 1 can be exchanged for RMB 6.38. Why is it so valuable for the dollar and the appreciation of the renminbi? Make the renminbi more valuable, it is best to exchange the US dollar to 1: 1.
The value of RMB has certain benefits. If it really becomes 1: 1, then my country's GDP has already surpassed the United States and is much higher. For example, my country's GDP in 2020 is 101 trillion yuan, which is US $ 101 trillion after converting this exchange rate. The United States is US $ 20.9 trillion, and China is almost 5 times that of the United States. The per capita GDP also exceeded $ 70,000, becoming a developed country.
After appreciation, imported products become cheap. For example, imported cars may only need to be bought by tens of thousands of RMB. The cost of imported energy and raw materials has also declined significantly. my country has imported oil, natural gas, chips, etc.
However, the negative impact of RMB appreciation has a greater impact. my country has the name of the "World Factory", the manufacturing industry is developed, and the product has the price advantage, which creates a huge trade amount and drives the economic development. Once the appreciation is appreciated, imported products have become cheap, and domestic products have no advantage, which will inevitably have an impact on my country's manufacturing industry. The profit of the factory has become low, difficulty in survival, closure, cause unemployment, and so on.
. In addition, it is not conducive to introducing overseas investment. Foreign capital to invest in my country can promote technological progress, create employment, and thus drive economic growth. In 2020, foreign investment in China invested 520.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 81%over 2019. my country has become the world's largest foreign capital flow. After the appreciation of the renminbi, it means that the investment cost in my country becomes higher, and they may be switched to other countries.
This wave of appreciation starts with the first working day after the end of the Golden Week holiday.
On October 8th, the intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar was reported at 6.4604, which was raised by 250 basis points from the previous trading day, the largest single -day increase since July 30.
On October 13, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that the trade surplus in September recorded US $ 67.760 billion, a new high in the year. The Chinese trade surplus in the third quarter was 181.5 billion US dollars, an increase of about 19%compared to the same period last year.
The expansion of the trade surplus strengthened the confidence of strengthening the renminbi, driving the foreign exchange settlement needs of export companies, the transactions of selling US dollars and buying RMB are relatively frequent, stimulating hot money flow.
But then at the third quarter of the central bank's third quarter financial statistics on October 15th, the central bank emphasized "enhanced the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, and exchanged exchange rate regulation of the macroeconomic and international revenue and expenditure automatic automatic revenue and expenditure. The role of stabilizer guides market players to establish risk neutral concepts, strengthen macro -prudential management of cross -border capital flows, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. "
On October 19th, what happened to the four -month high in the four -month high of the 6.4 mark against the US dollar in the shore, what happened? This is a very unfavorable situation of RMB appreciation on the current economic development. RMB appreciates, and the dollar is depreciating! After the appreciation of the renminbi, the exports will become less, and the imports will become more. Because you get foreign exchange through exports, and foreign exchange is worthless, it will suppress the export. If this number is getting higher and higher, it is not a good phenomenon Essence
The first is the decline of the US dollar index. Since the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has adopted a large -scale loose policy, and in 2020, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion table expansion of 3.2 trillion US dollars. Since the beginning of this year, the Fed's asset purchase plan has continued, and it has continued to expand of $ 56 trillion. Especially since April, although the U.S. inflation expects heating up and the CPI has risen over expectations, the Fed has continued to adopt a loose position. The US dollar index fell from a high point. Declanquerism exceeds 4%. Affected by the decline of the US dollar index, non -US dollar currency, including RMB. From the end of March to May 26, the RMB appreciated by 2.5%against the US dollar, the euro appreciated by 3.9%against the US dollar, the pound appreciated by 2.4%against the US dollar, and the yen appreciated 1.4%against the US dollar.
The second is that my country's economy has risen steadily and continues to improve. Since the epidemic, my country's economy has begun to recover. Since this year, despite the complex and changing external environment, my country's epidemic prevention and control has achieved remarkable results. The domestic economy has maintained a steady recovery trend, which has provided a solid foundation for the steady RMB exchange rate. From the end of March to May 26, in addition to the appreciation of the US dollar, the appreciation of some non -dollar currencies also appreciates differently. %, 2.3%, 1.5%, 1.1%, 0.8%, and 0.6%, indicating that the continuous improvement of economic fundamentals provides the foundation for the stability of the RMB value.
three is that my country's international revenue and expenditure remains surplus. On the one hand, export surplus growth is increased. Since the beginning of this year, the overall recovery of developed economies has driven external needs, and the epidemic situation of emerging economies such as India has repeatedly led to the transfer of orders. my country's exports have maintained rapid growth. In April, the amount of exports for US dollars increased by 1.7 percentage points from March to 32.3%year -on -year, and the trade surplus further expanded by US $ 29.306 billion to US $ 42.86 billion. On the other hand, capital projects continue to flow in. my country is the leader of the global economic recovery and one of the few economies that maintain normal monetary policies. International investors are optimistic about China's economic prospects and capital market potential. Capital projects have continued to inflow. Cumulative net inflows have exceeded 200 billion yuan since the beginning of the year.
This shows that the currency in the United States is serious. Therefore, the inflation in the United States is very high, and it is very expensive in the United States now. U.S. Well, one -liter gasoline needs to sell more than seven yuan.